Time Series Analysis of Road Traffic Accidents in Bauchi State

Ali Adamu, Ogundipe Adeboye Elijah

Abstract


Road traffic accidents rate in the recent days is becoming alarming in the country given the human and technological advancement. Lot of lives are being wasted pathetically, premature deaths and destruction of scarce human and materials resources. Nigeria has a huge natural and human resources who are day by day wasted and destroyed by this controllable disaster. However, this work is based on the statistical analysis of road traffic accidents and ways of reducing it to its bearest minimum. The secondary data used in this research was collected from the Federal Road Safety Commission (FRSC) RS 12.1. Trend shows that road accidents are increasing in Bauchi and that it is highest between October and December. Time series (ARIMA) is the method used with model (1,1,1) having the least Akaike Information Criteria (AIC) selected as the best model in analyzing the collected data which clearly shows that there is an increase in road accidents over the course of the years in each quarter. Furthermore, the selected model was used to forecast four (4) years which also shows an increase. Various recommendations were made based on the findings of this work which include proper funding and provision of up to date equipment

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References


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